Sat, Feb 26, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 28 | 07 | 227 |
| DAL | 111 | 05 | 29 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:06DALTom WandellAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:00NSHRyan SuterAssists: Colin Wilson, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 13:32NSHColin WilsonAssists: Cody Franson, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 6:02DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Brenden Morrow, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 16:18DALLoui ErikssonPPGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Brenden Morrow · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:04NSHKevin Klein: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:54DALJamie Langenbrunner: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:03NSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:28NSHNick Spaling: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:38DALBrenden Morrow: Holding2 min
- P3 8:54NSHJerred Smithson: Interference2 min
- P3 15:12NSHShea Weber: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:52DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson12:19
xG 0.65–0.19 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Dumont – Geoffrion – Halischuk3:46
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling12:14
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn11:15
xG 0.27–0.54 (34%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson9:19
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Klein – O'Brien3:00
xG 0.03–0.13 (17%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber21:08
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Benn – Vincour9:44
xG 0.56–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Ott – Wandell2:47
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn4:04
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish5:05
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Daley15:04
xG 0.69–0.38 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Fistric12:07
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Daley2:23
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).