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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 26, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Colorado Avalanche 3, Los Angeles Kings 4

Away

Colorado Avalanche

3

Final

Home

Los Angeles Kings

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 95% of the time.

LAK winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL050537317
LAK114216112442

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:13LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Brad Richardson, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–1
  2. P2 9:50LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Kyle Clifford, Trevor Lewis · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P2 19:58LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Ryan Smyth · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
  4. P3 5:47LAKJarret StollPPGWGAssists: Justin Williams, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.08 xG0–4
  5. P3 12:42COLDavid JonesPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–4
  6. P3 13:21COLDavid JonesPPAssists: Erik Johnson, John-Michael Liles · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
  7. P3 19:30COLPaul StastnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 3:12LAKKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 3:12COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 13:24COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 3:00COLDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 3:24COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
  6. P2 13:50LAKWayne Simmonds: Boarding2 min
  7. P2 14:59COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 16:09COLRyan Wilson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P2 18:29COLMilan Hejduk: Slashing2 min · PPG
  10. P3 1:26LAKDustin Brown: Boarding2 min
  11. P3 4:00LAKRyan Smyth: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 4:00COLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min · PPG
  13. P3 4:20COLMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 11:07LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min · PPG
  15. P3 11:20LAKJarret Stoll: High sticking2 min
  16. P3 13:57COLJay McClement: Hooking2 min
  17. P3 15:58COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
  18. P3 15:58LAKWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
  19. P3 17:00COLErik Johnson: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
47% to win53% to win
← COL attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Handzus
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLLAK
17Shots on goal42
1.5Expected goals5.7
37Shot attempts89
24Faceoffs won39
4Power plays9
27Penalty minutes17
24Hits21
15Blocked shots8
14Giveaways16
3Takeaways2

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestMcClement – Yip – Winnik6:15

    xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0

  2. Hejduk – Stastny – Duchene2:02

    xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. Koci – McLeod – O'Reilly2:11

    xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0

  4. Jones – McLeod – O'Reilly2:27

    xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Liles – Johnson2:53

    xG 0.09–0.06 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  2. Hunwick – Holos3:09

    xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  3. Hunwick – Gaunce6:51

    xG 0.07–0.25 (22%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. bestRichardson – Kopitar – Simmonds9:30

    xG 0.84–0.26 (77%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0

  2. Handzus – Williams – Clifford5:12

    xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0

  3. Smyth – Stoll – Brown9:07

    xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0

  4. Handzus – Ponikarovsky – Williams3:01

    xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMitchell – Doughty11:55

    xG 1.03–0.20 (84%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0

  2. Greene – Martinez9:26

    xG 0.40–0.17 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0

  3. Scuderi – Johnson8:15

    xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 5.7 xGCOL 1.5 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #204 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.71 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 95% of the time.

LAK winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).