Sat, Feb 26, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 112 | 116 | 02 | 2 | 337 |
| BUF | 215 | 07 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:55BUFAndrej SekeraAssists: Jochen Hecht, Drew Stafford · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:59BUFMike GrierAssists: Andrej Sekera, Rob Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 10:43DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:02DETJiri HudlerAssists: Daniel Cleary, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 3. BUF Thomas Vanek stopped
- 4. DET Jiri Hudler scored
Penalties (3)
- P2 4:31BUFPatrick Kaleta: Kneeing2 min
- P2 7:52DETBrad Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:12BUFJochen Hecht: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hecht won the faceoff against Modano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Hudler6:51
xG 0.52–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen6:39
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Draper – Abdelkader – Helm9:10
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Hudler – Franzen4:02
xG 0.21–0.21 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson16:48
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Salei – Kindl13:56
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart15:58
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Pominville – Vanek2:06
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Connolly – Pominville – Vanek9:44
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Hecht – Stafford – Ennis10:17
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick10:19
xG 0.26–0.48 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Myers19:40
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Montador – Sekera14:26
xG 0.87–0.90 (49%)attempts 15–19goals 2–0
- Morrisonn – Weber16:48
xG 0.27–0.70 (28%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).