Sat, Feb 26, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 213 | 07 | 331 |
| MTL | 27 | 113 | 17 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25CARJussi JokinenAssists: Brandon Sutter, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 13:48MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 16:53MTLLars EllerAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 2:10CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Chad LaRose, Jerome Samson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 5:13MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 10:49CARCory StillmanAssists: Jeff Skinner, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 16:07MTLAndrei KostitsynPPGWGAssists: Roman Hamrlik, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:34MTLScott Gomez: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:43MTLDavid Desharnais: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:00MTLDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:10CARJeff Skinner: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Tlusty – Sutter10:28
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Samson7:03
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Samsonov – Dwyer – Bodie2:43
xG 0.22–0.04 (83%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Stillman – Cole – Ruutu4:36
xG 0.07–0.52 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarson – Joslin6:14
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Corvo – Pitkanen3:08
xG 0.02–0.01 (75%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – Joslin3:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Pyatt – Desharnais7:30
xG 1.31–0.14 (90%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller9:14
xG 0.35–0.24 (58%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Halpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec13:25
xG 0.23–0.18 (57%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty10:43
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban16:56
xG 1.62–0.15 (92%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Gill – Sopel2:33
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski14:57
xG 0.39–0.76 (34%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).