Sat, Feb 26, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 115 | 08 | 08 | 131 |
| OTT | 03 | 214 | 212 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:40PHIScott HartnellAssists: Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 12:18OTTNick FolignoPPAssists: Filip Kuba, Ryan Shannon · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 16:10OTTErik CondraGWGAssists: Ryan Shannon, Colin Greening · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 11:15OTTChris PhillipsAssists: Jason Spezza, Bobby Butler · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 18:35OTTErik CondraPPAssists: Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:00OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:20OTTMarek Svatos: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:30OTTRyan Shannon: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:59OTTErik Condra: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:09PHIDaniel Carcillo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:25PHIDarroll Powe: Holding2 min
- P3 17:17OTTColin Greening: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:17OTTColin Greening: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:17PHIErik Gustafsson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:17PHIErik Gustafsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:17PHIScott Hartnell: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Versteeg – Nodl8:42
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Carter – Giroux2:22
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 1–1
- Zherdev – Carter – Giroux8:30
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Shelley – Carcillo – Powe5:31
xG 0.07–0.10 (39%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn12:43
xG 0.82–0.66 (55%)attempts 16–11goals 0–2
- Carle – Meszaros3:49
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Carle – Gustafsson13:32
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestWick – Shannon – Condra4:58
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler5:57
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Shannon – Greening – Condra4:51
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Svatos – Foligno – Smith8:52
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson15:30
xG 0.55–0.21 (73%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Carkner – Campoli10:55
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Phillips – Lee15:27
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).