Sun, Feb 27, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 05 | 112 | 110 | 227 |
| NSH | 06 | 09 | 313 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:17CBJMatt CalvertPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P3 1:47NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 7:18NSHJonathon BlumAssists: Joel Ward, Nick Spaling · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 12:34CBJKris RussellPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 18:25NSHDavid LegwandGWGAssists: Martin Erat, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 19:17NSHRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:59NSHShane O'Brien: Holding2 min
- P2 8:42NSHPatric Hornqvist: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:42CBJDerek Dorsett: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:04NSHShea Weber: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:13CBJGrant Clitsome: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:10CBJEthan Moreau: Elbowing2 min
- P3 10:50NSHDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:16NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Nash – Voracek11:51
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Moreau – Murray – Boll6:50
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Umberger – Calvert6:33
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett10:44
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Methot2:21
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Hejda2:42
xG 0.04–0.02 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hejda – Stralman4:11
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson12:31
xG 0.56–0.09 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling7:02
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Geoffrion – Halischuk7:49
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn12:07
xG 0.27–0.73 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Blum13:37
xG 0.76–0.33 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Franson11:02
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber17:49
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).