Sun, Feb 27, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Boston Bruins 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 215 | 117 | 08 | 340 |
| EDM | 15 | 07 | 15 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:05EDMAles HemskyAssists: Jim Vandermeer, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:30BOSMichael RyderAssists: Milan Lucic, Adam McQuaid · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 18:39BOSNathan HortonAssists: David Krejci, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 19:08BOSRich PeverleyGWGAssists: Michael Ryder, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 3:14EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jason Strudwick · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:27EDMTheo Peckham: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:27BOSNathan Horton: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:16BOSAdam McQuaid: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:26EDMKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:01EDMTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:38EDMAndrew Cogliano: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:38BOSBrad Marchand: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:57EDMJim Vandermeer: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:57BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic9:37
xG 0.96–0.38 (72%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Ryder – Kelly – Peverley12:12
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand10:34
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Seguin5:16
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk18:21
xG 1.34–0.74 (64%)attempts 28–12goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – Kampfer12:39
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – McQuaid3:08
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrule – Eberle – Hall2:11
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall2:27
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- MacIntyre – Jones – Brule5:52
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi12:27
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrudwick – Foster8:02
xG 0.61–0.22 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Foster – Smid3:25
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Peckham3:29
xG 0.24–0.23 (50%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).