Sun, Feb 27, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 09 | 14 | 224 |
| ANA | 05 | 217 | 110 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07COLKevin PorterAssists: Matt Duchene, Jonas Holos · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 1:43ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 17:51ANATodd MarchantAssists: Luca Sbisa, Jarkko Ruutu · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 1:43COLDavid JonesAssists: Matt Hunwick, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 11:23ANABrandon McMillanPPGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:30ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:30COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:47COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:47ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:45ANAJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:45COLCameron Gaunce: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:51COLCameron Gaunce: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:51ANALuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:28ANATeemu Selanne: Holding2 min
- P2 8:38COLPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
- P2 10:34COLCody McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:16COLCameron Gaunce: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:19COLBrandon Yip: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against McMillan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Yip – Winnik4:51
xG 0.43–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Stoa10:16
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Porter – Duchene13:16
xG 0.51–0.74 (40%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Johnson3:23
xG 0.35–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Wilson3:26
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Gaunce2:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan10:03
xG 1.32–0.19 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Marchant – Ruutu – Sexton5:01
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Selanne – Blake – McMillan3:51
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Marchant – Ruutu – Blake4:30
xG 0.13–0.22 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky15:44
xG 1.02–0.33 (76%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Sbisa7:06
xG 0.51–0.39 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Lilja – Fowler14:05
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).