Tue, Mar 1, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Montréal Canadiens 3, Atlanta Thrashers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 15 | 18 | 110 | 323 |
| ATL | 09 | 016 | 116 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:22MTLMax PaciorettyUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 0:34MTLJames WisniewskiPPGWGAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 14:14ATLNik AntropovAssists: Anthony Stewart · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 19:14MTLBrian GiontaENAssists: Scott Gomez, Max Pacioretty · Backhand, 0.60 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:34MTLMax Pacioretty: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:54ATLMark Stuart: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:18MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00ATLAnthony Stewart: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:59MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:18MTLCarey Price: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:12ATLToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:42MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:44ATLRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:00MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:00ATLDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:21MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference2 min
- P3 0:21ATLChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec9:01
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller8:16
xG 0.04–0.05 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White6:45
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty11:14
xG 0.20–0.83 (19%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Sopel – Mara10:01
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski15:30
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
- Gill – Subban14:08
xG 0.09–0.74 (11%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Antropov – Schremp2:00
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:52
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Schremp – Stapleton2:20
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Maxwell3:05
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian12:22
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:19
xG 0.53–0.21 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Byfuglien2:08
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).