Tue, Mar 1, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 1, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 118 | 012 | 04 | 01 | 1 | 135 |
| EDM | 17 | 06 | 011 | 02 | 2 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:45NSHBlake GeoffrionAssists: Ryan Suter, Matt Halischuk · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 13:26EDMJim VandermeerAssists: Sam Gagner · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 2. NSH Martin Erat scored
- 3. EDM Taylor Hall stopped
- 4. NSH Mike Fisher stopped
- 5. EDM Gilbert Brule stopped
- 6. NSH David Legwand stopped
- 7. EDM Linus Omark scored
- 8. NSH Cody Franson stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:45EDMLadislav Smid: Interference2 min
- P2 2:58NSHShane O'Brien: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:50EDMTom Gilbert: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:10NSHJerred Smithson: Holding2 min
- P3 1:52EDMSam Gagner: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:42NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson9:44
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Geoffrion – Halischuk6:43
xG 0.49–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn13:12
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling8:56
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber18:25
xG 0.88–0.28 (76%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Franson10:29
xG 0.65–0.31 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Klein – O'Brien2:50
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Hemsky – Paajarvi10:41
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Jacques – Reddox – Omark5:05
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Eberle – Hall12:15
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Jones – Brule – Gagner11:41
xG 0.30–0.60 (33%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Petiot13:34
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Smid13:54
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Foster10:56
xG 0.31–1.14 (22%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).