Tue, Mar 1, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 3, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 013 | 210 | 330 |
| PHX | 08 | 09 | 210 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:16DALTom WandellAssists: Toby Petersen · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 12:47DALJamie LangenbrunnerAssists: Steve Ott, Adam Burish · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 16:21PHXRostislav KleslaAssists: Kyle Turris, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 19:22PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 19:55DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:00DALJamie Benn: Throwing equipment2 min
- P2 2:42PHXShane Doan: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:07PHXAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:00DALMark Fistric: Holding2 min
- P2 14:14PHXEric Belanger: Holding2 min
- P3 19:47PHXRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:55PHXDerek Morris: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:55PHXDerek Morris: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:55PHXKeith Yandle: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Ott – Benn4:36
xG 0.34–0.07 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Benn – Vincour7:27
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Eriksson2:08
xG 0.04–0.03 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn3:06
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Daley2:53
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Robidas – Goligoski15:26
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Daley14:16
xG 0.48–0.43 (52%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Boedker4:08
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal6:19
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Doan – Belanger – Korpikoski6:34
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bissonnette – Turris – Boedker2:07
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Schlemko12:35
xG 0.91–0.55 (62%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Klesla11:51
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Morris – Yandle16:43
xG 0.21–0.34 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).