Wed, Mar 2, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Detroit Red Wings 1, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 03 | 115 | 010 | 01 | 129 |
| ANA | 08 | 010 | 19 | 11 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:10DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Tomas Holmstrom · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 1:54ANAJason BlakeAssists: Teemu Selanne, Lubomir Visnovsky · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 2:50ANABobby RyanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:01ANABrandon McMillan: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:07DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min
- P1 13:41ANAAndreas Lilja: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:45DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference2 min
- P1 16:26ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:53ANAToni Lydman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:33ANAToni Lydman: Interference2 min
- P2 2:13DETDaniel Cleary: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:34ANABrad Winchester: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:19DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 7:51ANARyan Getzlaf: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:36ANAAndreas Lilja: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:47ANATeemu Selanne: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 2:50DETRuslan Salei: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen6:17
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Modano – Holmstrom – Filppula5:26
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Abdelkader2:13
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Helm5:37
xG 0.38–0.46 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson11:43
xG 0.70–0.14 (83%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Ericsson3:01
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Salei – Kindl8:22
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan12:10
xG 0.75–0.65 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Marchant – Winchester – Sexton2:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Marchant – Ruutu – Sexton3:13
xG 0.01–0.05 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – McMillan – Sexton2:09
xG 0.03–0.12 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Sbisa11:17
xG 0.36–0.28 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Lilja – Fowler9:40
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky9:08
xG 0.45–0.56 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).