Thu, Mar 3, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 113 | 05 | 128 |
| BOS | 08 | 113 | 17 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:04TBLEric BrewerAssists: Blair Jones, Steve Downie · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 6:06BOSSteven KampferAssists: Chris Kelly, Rich Peverley · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 16:18BOSMilan LucicGWGAssists: David Krejci, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:55BOSMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:47TBLAdam Hall: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:38TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:38BOSShawn Thornton: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:17TBLMattias Ohlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:10TBLEric Brewer: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10BOSNathan Horton: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:10BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:10BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:23BOSDennis Seidenberg: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:46TBLEric Brewer: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hall won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Ritola – Tyrell7:07
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Downie – Jones – Purcell3:57
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Hall – Moore – Bergenheim9:48
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Gagne – Stamkos11:11
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Hedman3:01
xG 0.56–0.07 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman13:05
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Brewer12:42
xG 0.10–0.21 (31%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic11:45
xG 0.90–0.18 (84%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand11:05
xG 0.48–0.28 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Ryder – Kelly – Peverley8:14
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:31
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk3:53
xG 0.56–0.08 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Chara – Boychuk10:29
xG 0.44–0.04 (91%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Boychuk2:26
xG 0.16–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).