Thu, Mar 3, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 4, Florida Panthers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 26 | 115 | 110 | 431 |
| FLA | 08 | 012 | 010 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:02MTLHal GillGWGAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, James Wisniewski · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 8:54MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Travis Moen, Lars Eller · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 4:59MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Benoit Pouliot · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 3:21MTLLars EllerAssists: Travis Moen, James Wisniewski · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:37MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:10FLAJoe Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23MTLBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:00MTLLars Eller: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Pyatt – Desharnais9:06
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller11:07
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Halpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec11:33
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty11:32
xG 0.31–0.70 (31%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski16:52
xG 0.71–0.39 (64%)attempts 22–18goals 1–0
- Gill – Subban14:39
xG 0.40–0.38 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Sopel – Picard13:20
xG 0.08–0.66 (11%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – McArdle – Bergfors2:52
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Weiss – Booth10:57
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Timmins3:45
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Bergfors3:34
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllerby – Kulikov3:39
xG 0.38–0.12 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Callahan – Sulzer5:18
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Sulzer – Kulikov11:37
xG 0.26–0.22 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).