Thu, Mar 3, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 110 | 17 | 228 |
| EDM | 213 | 113 | 112 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:06EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:52EDMTaylor HallAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Jason Strudwick · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 0:14EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 1:34CBJJan HejdaAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 15:38CBJScottie UpshallAssists: R.J. Umberger, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:48EDMAndrew CoglianoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:01EDMRichard Petiot: Interference2 min
- P1 5:45EDMJason Strudwick: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:45CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:47CBJEthan Moreau: Interference2 min
- P1 10:15EDMRichard Petiot: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 11:06CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 4:27EDMJim Vandermeer: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:01EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:33CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:33EDMTaylor Hall: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:33EDMTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:37CBJMatt Calvert: Holding2 min
- P3 2:17CBJGrant Clitsome: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:47EDMGilbert Brule: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:12CBJAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
- P3 19:31EDMJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Nash – Voracek3:30
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Upshall – Voracek2:46
xG 0.15–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Dorsett – Calvert2:10
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Umberger – Calvert3:44
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Methot10:38
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Hejda – Russell2:44
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Russell10:10
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJones – Brule – Cogliano7:20
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Jacques – Fraser – Reddox5:46
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Eberle – Hall6:07
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi5:22
xG 0.02–0.42 (5%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid12:09
xG 1.12–0.26 (81%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Vandermeer – Foster4:22
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Vandermeer – Gilbert3:29
xG 0.11–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).