Fri, Mar 4, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New Jersey Devils 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 17 | 010 | 00 | 126 |
| NJD | 08 | 113 | 06 | 13 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:43NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Nick Palmieri, Andy Greene · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:58PITTyler KennedyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 4:35NJDIlya KovalchukPPGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Brian Rolston · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:14PITKris Letang: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:14NJDTravis Zajac: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:14PITKris Letang: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 14:03NJDDainius Zubrus: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:33NJDColin White: Boarding2 min
- OT 2:46PITZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Talbot – Jeffrey10:48
xG 0.69–0.18 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal13:53
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Kovalev – Neal – Letestu14:04
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Adams – Rupp – Conner7:03
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Lovejoy3:34
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Martin – Michalek11:24
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Michalek – Lovejoy6:29
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Zharkov – Josefson8:05
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri15:00
xG 0.15–0.12 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus12:23
xG 0.26–0.52 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Mair – Steckel – Pelley8:24
xG 0.12–0.69 (15%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Salmela17:02
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- White – Volchenkov16:05
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Fayne18:44
xG 0.43–0.98 (30%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).