Sat, Mar 5, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 014 | 215 | 07 | 13 | 339 |
| BOS | 09 | 111 | 111 | 00 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:26BOSZdeno CharaAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 10:09PITJordan StaalAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 11:19PITDustin JeffreyAssists: Max Talbot, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 19:27BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Milan Lucic, Nathan Horton · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- OT 1:52PITDustin JeffreyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:59PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:59BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:08PITBen Lovejoy: Holding2 min
- P1 18:31BOSNathan Horton: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:31PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:53BOSMilan Lucic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:41BOSMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Letestu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Talbot – Jeffrey8:21
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Adams – Rupp – Conner6:41
xG 0.10–0.03 (75%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Neal – Letestu10:42
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal10:23
xG 0.40–0.61 (39%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Letang15:20
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek17:16
xG 0.78–0.49 (61%)attempts 22–16goals 2–0
- Michalek – Letang3:27
xG 0.03–0.01 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Peverley – Marchand3:48
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Recchi – Peverley – Marchand7:52
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Recchi – Kelly – Campbell2:46
xG 0.04–0.03 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ryder – Kelly – Seguin5:37
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McQuaid4:57
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk3:34
xG 0.04–0.02 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Seidenberg6:10
xG 0.07–0.08 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).