Sat, Mar 5, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 39 | 210 | 06 | 525 |
| TOR | 07 | 113 | 213 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10CHIMarian HossaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 4:13CHIMichael FrolikAssists: Troy Brouwer, Jake Dowell · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 15:37CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 7:28TORJoffrey LupulUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 11:51CHIViktor StalbergGWGAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Ryan Johnson · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P2 17:57CHIBryan BickellAssists: Dave Bolland, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.34 xG5–1
- P3 4:26TORJoey CrabbAssists: Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 19:03TORLuke SchennUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:35TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:45TORTim Brent: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:01CHIBrian Campbell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:17TORKeith Aulie: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:01CHITomas Kopecky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:36CHINick Leddy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:30CHIViktor Stalberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:40CHIMarian Hossa: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:18TORColby Armstrong: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kopecky – Stalberg6:41
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Hossa – Bolland – Bickell9:07
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Dowell – Brouwer – Frolik9:25
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Sharp – Toews – Kane10:53
xG 0.47–0.75 (38%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson10:23
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Leddy2:15
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Keith – Leddy9:57
xG 0.25–0.33 (44%)attempts 5–12goals 2–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak6:09
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Brown7:22
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Boyce – Kessel3:33
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 3–5goals 1–2
- Lupul – Brent – Kessel2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLebda – Schenn5:21
xG 0.88–0.01 (99%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Aulie14:08
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson3:06
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).