Sat, Mar 5, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Detroit Red Wings 4, Phoenix Coyotes 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 28 | 26 | 08 | 04 | 0 | 426 |
| PHX | 111 | 011 | 312 | 02 | 1 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04DETDrew MillerAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 16:57DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Mike Modano · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 18:41PHXKyle TurrisAssists: Adrian Aucoin, Brett MacLean · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 15:27DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 19:47DETDarren HelmSHAssists: Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 2:32PHXMikkel BoedkerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 14:34PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Kyle Turris, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 18:03PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Radim Vrbata, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHX Kyle Turris stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 3. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
- 4. DET Jiri Hudler stopped
- 5. PHX Mikkel Boedker stopped
- 6. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:30DETBrad Stuart: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:01DETBrad Stuart: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:21PHXMichal Rozsival: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:57DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:54DETNicklas Lidstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 18:05DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference2 min
- P3 2:50PHXKyle Turris: Interference2 min
- P3 15:33PHXMartin Hanzal: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Hudler – Franzen10:22
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg11:54
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Modano – Bertuzzi – Cleary8:10
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Miller – Abdelkader – Helm6:31
xG 0.02–0.45 (3%)attempts 3–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Stuart14:38
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Salei – Stuart3:04
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Salei – Kindl6:44
xG 0.11–0.51 (18%)attempts 5–9goals 2–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMacLean – Turris – Boedker5:41
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak7:57
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal9:53
xG 0.32–0.18 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Whitney – Doan – Belanger10:11
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Schlemko2:33
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Klesla9:52
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Schlemko7:08
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).