Sat, Mar 5, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 07 | 210 | 328 |
| SJS | 18 | 111 | 012 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19DALJamie BennSHAssists: Stephane Robidas · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 9:55SJSKyle WellwoodAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Joe Pavelski · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 1:22SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 7:37DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Mark Fistric, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 12:48DALJason WilliamsGWGAssists: Steve Ott, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:00DALKarlis Skrastins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 2:51SJSDany Heatley: Cross checking2 min
- P1 2:51DALStephane Robidas: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:22SJSAntti Niemi: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 19:57DALSteve Ott: Charging2 min
- P2 19:57SJSJason Demers: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:57DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:35SJSRyane Clowe: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:16DALToby Petersen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00DALAlex Goligoski: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Eriksson4:03
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Benn – Vincour2:52
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Sutherby – Burish – Benn2:25
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Petersen5:12
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Fistric10:08
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Skrastins – Goligoski2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Robidas – Goligoski16:28
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell3:31
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Marleau – Heatley – Clowe11:45
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Wellwood – Eager – Pavelski2:41
xG 0.26–0.09 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Setoguchi – Couture11:25
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – White13:48
xG 1.18–0.47 (71%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Murray – Braun14:36
xG 0.52–0.72 (42%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers13:01
xG 0.23–0.74 (24%)attempts 10–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).