Sun, Mar 6, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 3, New York Islanders 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 110 | 19 | 02 | 2 | 329 |
| NYI | 04 | 17 | 17 | 04 | 1 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:09NJDBrian RolstonPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Travis Zajac · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 17:06NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: PA Parenteau, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 2:52NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Jacob Josefson, Anton Volchenkov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 16:18NYIBlake ComeauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. NJD Mattias Tedenby stopped
- 3. NYI PA Parenteau stopped
- 4. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 5. NYI Matt Moulson stopped
- 6. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 7. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
- 8. NJD Jacob Josefson stopped
- 9. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 10. NJD Travis Zajac stopped
- 11. NYI Matt Martin stopped
- 12. NJD Brian Rolston scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:00NJDDainius Zubrus: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:00NYIBruno Gervais: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:58NYIAndrew MacDonald: Diving2 min
- P2 12:58NJDDainius Zubrus: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:54NJDAndy Greene: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:32NJDMark Fayne: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Elias – Zubrus11:35
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Mair – Tedenby – Josefson5:09
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Steckel – Clarkson – Zharkov9:35
xG 0.06–0.15 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri12:30
xG 0.20–0.53 (27%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Volchenkov15:24
xG 1.06–0.16 (87%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Greene – Salmela15:17
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne17:37
xG 0.33–0.58 (37%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner13:50
xG 0.70–0.23 (76%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Konopka – Haley – DiBenedetto4:35
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Bailey – Martin8:38
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:04
xG 0.10–0.79 (11%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic18:56
xG 0.93–0.44 (68%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Jurcina – Wishart5:27
xG 0.09–0.07 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jurcina – Hillen7:11
xG 0.02–0.14 (13%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).