Sun, Mar 6, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 0, New York Rangers 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 010 | 07 | 024 |
| NYR | 214 | 210 | 312 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51NYRRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 12:58NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Vinny Prospal, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 5:06NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 6:28NYRRyan CallahanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 4:20NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Matt Gilroy, Vinny Prospal · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–5
- P3 14:41NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Ryan Callahan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–6
- P3 18:47NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Wojtek Wolski · Snap, 0.22 xG0–7
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:39PHIJody Shelley: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:57NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Holding2 min
- P1 10:39PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 10:39NYRBrian Boyle: Instigator2 min
- P1 10:39NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:39NYRBrian Boyle: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:32PHIMike Richards: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:55NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:55PHIMike Richards: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:11NYRMarian Gaborik: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:11PHIKris Versteeg: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:08NYRMatt Gilroy: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:02NYRVinny Prospal: Holding2 min
- P2 14:01PHIJames van Riemsdyk: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:56PHIDaniel Brière: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:14NYRArtem Anisimov: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:37PHIDaniel Brière: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino7:41
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe8:46
xG 0.11–0.30 (28%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Nodl – van Riemsdyk9:22
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Zherdev – Richards – Versteeg8:46
xG 0.01–0.83 (1%)attempts 2–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Carle – Meszaros2:23
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros10:22
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle2:19
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov7:37
xG 1.08–0.09 (93%)attempts 11–4goals 3–0
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello7:37
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust8:22
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Prospal – Avery – Gaborik6:56
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi13:30
xG 1.02–0.41 (71%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Sauer – McDonagh14:24
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- McCabe – Gilroy9:12
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).