Sun, Mar 6, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 112 | 06 | 11 | 325 |
| FLA | 116 | 09 | 19 | 00 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:03FLABill ThomasAssists: Michal Repik, Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 17:16WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Knuble · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 10:02WSHBoyd GordonAssists: John Carlson, Matt Hendricks · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 17:24FLADavid BoothPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Dmitry Kulikov · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–2
- OT 0:48WSHAlexander SeminGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Karl Alzner · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:20WSHBoyd Gordon: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:27WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:27FLAKenndal McArdle: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:36WSHTyler Sloan: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:47WSHJohn Carlson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:32FLADavid Booth: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:39WSHKarl Alzner: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:17WSHJohn Erskine: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:57WSHDennis Wideman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:09
xG 0.93–0.88 (51%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Arnott – Semin – Ovechkin2:29
xG 0.02–0.01 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bradley – Hendricks – Gordon6:33
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Sturm – Chimera – Johansson7:43
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson17:29
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Hannan – Wideman12:36
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Erskine – Sloan11:18
xG 0.22–0.51 (30%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Booth – Santorelli11:26
xG 0.30–0.13 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Samsonov – Weiss – Bergfors12:01
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Thomas – Timmins5:20
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Reasoner – McArdle – Repik6:27
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison14:01
xG 0.90–0.54 (62%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
- Ellerby – Kulikov10:26
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Callahan – Wilson5:27
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).