Tue, Mar 8, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 2, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 15 | 18 | 221 |
| NJD | 07 | 014 | 111 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:45OTTErik CondraAssists: Ryan Shannon, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 4:01NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Brian Rolston, Dainius Zubrus · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 17:47OTTErik CondraGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Chris Phillips · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:09NJDHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:37OTTErik Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:22OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:10OTTFilip Kuba: Holding2 min
- P2 18:42NJDMark Fayne: Holding2 min
- P3 9:18OTTJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:18NJDBrian Rolston: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Shannon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSvatos – Shannon – Condra8:56
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler11:07
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Lessard – Potulny – Winchester4:18
xG 0.00–0.07 (2%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith9:44
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson14:00
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Phillips – Lee14:00
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Phillips – Karlsson3:02
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSteckel – Clarkson – Pelley7:53
xG 0.27–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Zharkov – Tedenby – Josefson7:37
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus11:28
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri14:19
xG 0.14–0.58 (19%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Salmela14:23
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne16:28
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Volchenkov – Fayne2:03
xG 0.01–0.07 (11%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).