Tue, Mar 8, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Edmonton Oilers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 01 | 111 | 013 | 125 |
| PHI | 217 | 15 | 15 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Matt Carle, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 17:40PHIJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 7:05PHIJeff CarterAssists: Kimmo Timonen, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 8:00EDMJean-Francois JacquesAssists: Ladislav Smid · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 19:18PHIBlair BettsENAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:00PHIChris Pronger: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:37EDMLinus Omark: Interference2 min
- P1 12:57EDMLadislav Smid: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 18:25PHISean O'Donnell: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:37EDMSteve MacIntyre: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:46PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Fraser
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Reddox – Cogliano8:54
xG 0.87–0.20 (81%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Jacques – Fraser – MacIntyre2:49
xG 0.13–0.00 (97%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Jones – Gagner – Omark9:44
xG 0.24–0.91 (21%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Eberle – Paajarvi8:12
xG 0.02–0.69 (3%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStrudwick – Foster7:02
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Plante3:38
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid16:19
xG 1.10–0.90 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestShelley – Betts – Powe4:57
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Giroux – van Riemsdyk9:45
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino10:14
xG 0.98–1.28 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Richards – Carcillo – Versteeg10:29
xG 0.37–0.70 (35%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Meszaros2:32
xG 0.50–0.04 (93%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pronger – Carle13:24
xG 0.79–0.48 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:39
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).