Tue, Mar 8, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 07 | 113 | 131 |
| MTL | 29 | 211 | 06 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:21MTLLars EllerAssists: Travis Moen, Paul Mara · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 17:37MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Travis Moen, Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 7:15MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–3
- P2 15:09MTLJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 13:21BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:11BOSJohnny Boychuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:11MTLRyan White: Instigator2 min
- P1 3:11MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:11MTLRyan White: Misconduct10 min
- P1 5:51BOSTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:55MTLTomas Plekanec: Kneeing2 min
- P2 6:41BOSChris Kelly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:26MTLRoman Hamrlik: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:34MTLMax Pacioretty: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:31BOSJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:44BOSZdeno Chara: Interference5 min
- P2 19:44BOSZdeno Chara: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 4:08MTLRoman Hamrlik: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 17:34BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Bergeron – Marchand8:00
xG 0.48–0.09 (85%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic10:28
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Seguin7:34
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ryder – Kelly – Peverley7:02
xG 0.11–0.25 (30%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Seidenberg3:58
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski7:57
xG 0.36–0.32 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Bartkowski2:36
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Pacioretty7:39
xG 1.00–0.18 (84%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller10:26
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
- Gomez – Gionta – Pouliot3:26
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Halpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec10:50
xG 0.14–1.21 (10%)attempts 3–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski11:52
xG 1.01–0.49 (67%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Sopel – Mara11:28
xG 0.66–0.75 (47%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Gill – Subban14:44
xG 0.39–0.74 (34%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).