Tue, Mar 8, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 215 | 014 | 239 |
| FLA | 38 | 04 | 03 | 315 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06FLADavid BoothAssists: Michal Repik · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 9:44FLAClay WilsonAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Sergei Samsonov · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 19:53FLAMarty ReasonerGWGAssists: David Booth, Keaton Ellerby · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 11:03CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brian Campbell, Ryan Johnson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 13:48CHIMarian HossaAssists: Dave Bolland, Bryan Bickell · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:30FLAJoe Callahan: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:15FLASteve Bernier: Interference2 min
- P3 8:07FLAScott Timmins: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDowell – Brouwer – Frolik10:25
xG 0.59–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hossa – Bolland – Bickell11:01
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Sharp – Toews – Kane13:34
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kopecky – Stalberg6:38
xG 0.04–0.54 (6%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Campoli12:52
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Keith – Leddy12:09
xG 0.78–0.48 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook6:33
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHordichuk – Thomas – Timmins3:08
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Reasoner – Booth – Repik10:01
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
- Bernier – Santorelli – Kennedy11:58
xG 0.07–0.32 (19%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Weiss – Bergfors14:05
xG 0.15–0.76 (17%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCallahan – Ellerby2:06
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Garrison – Kulikov2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov2:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).