Tue, Mar 8, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 215 | 08 | 230 |
| MIN | 15 | 111 | 39 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:04MINMartin HavlatAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 6:43COLKevin PorterAssists: Ryan Wilson, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 16:11COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.35 xG2–1
- P2 17:46MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Jared Spurgeon · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 10:55MINJohn MaddenGWGAssists: Matt Cullen, Chuck Kobasew · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 13:30MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Martin Havlat, Eric Nystrom · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 19:56MINKyle BrodziakENAssists: Greg Zanon, Niklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:12MINMartin Havlat: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:15COLMatt Duchene: Holding2 min
- P1 14:05COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:40COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:49MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:55MINBrent Burns: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:22COLRyan Wilson: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P3 5:35MINMartin Havlat: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:20COLPeter Budaj: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:11MINMartin Havlat: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Porter – Stastny10:35
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Winnik – McLeod – O'Reilly4:20
xG 0.33–0.21 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- McClement – Winnik – O'Reilly4:34
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Koci – Dupuis – Yip2:48
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Hunwick5:17
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Johnson2:49
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Foote – Hunwick2:59
xG 0.24–0.12 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Madden – Kobasew10:47
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak7:38
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Nystrom – Staubitz – Latendresse5:04
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Peters8:41
xG 0.19–0.34 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Burns17:11
xG 0.87–0.40 (68%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
- Zanon – Zidlicky10:10
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Zanon – Barker2:56
xG 0.02–0.10 (20%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).