Tue, Mar 8, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Vancouver Canucks 4, Phoenix Coyotes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 116 | 214 | 08 | 11 | 439 |
| PHX | 210 | 115 | 07 | 02 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27PHXEric BelangerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 10:55PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Eric Belanger, David Schlemko · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 11:12VANDan HamhuisAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 9:14VANHenrik SedinAssists: Ryan Kesler, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–2
- P2 12:17VANSami SaloAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 19:17PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Eric Belanger, Michal Rozsival · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 2:13VANDan HamhuisGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:05VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:40PHXLauri Korpikoski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:06VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:43VANVictor Oreskovich: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:46PHXEric Belanger: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLapierre – Glass – Oreskovich6:39
xG 0.72–0.14 (83%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:09
xG 1.04–0.55 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 1–2
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen11:19
xG 0.24–0.19 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Tambellini12:36
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Tanev11:13
xG 0.76–0.35 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Salo – Rome15:07
xG 1.27–0.89 (59%)attempts 15–20goals 1–2
- Hamhuis – Ehrhoff18:50
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Vrbata – Fiddler6:57
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Turris – Boedker3:10
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bissonnette – Ebbett – MacLean3:46
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bissonnette – Stempniak – Ebbett3:17
xG 0.03–0.15 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Yandle5:23
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Schlemko2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Ekman-Larsson5:54
xG 0.05–0.06 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).