Wed, Mar 9, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Edmonton Oilers 0, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 07 | 05 | 022 |
| WSH | 012 | 215 | 39 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:38WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Jason Arnott, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 10:32WSHEric FehrPPAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 3:10WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 7:47WSHEric FehrAssists: Jason Chimera, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
- P3 14:30WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Marco Sturm, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:34EDMTom Gilbert: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:28WSHScott Hannan: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00WSHJason Arnott: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:14EDMRyan Jones: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:53EDMNikolai Khabibulin: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min · PPG
- P2 16:06EDMAlex Plante: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:39WSHMatt Hendricks: Interference2 min
- P3 10:32WSHAlexander Semin: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:33EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Eberle – Paajarvi10:26
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Jacques – Fraser – MacIntyre4:04
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Reddox – Cogliano7:00
xG 0.02–0.39 (5%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Gagner – Omark10:31
xG 0.18–0.79 (19%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Strudwick – Foster6:31
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Plante2:57
xG 0.08–0.06 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Foster3:24
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Sturm – Semin9:08
xG 0.62–0.14 (82%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Johansson8:45
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Bradley – Hendricks – Gordon8:46
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Laich – Fehr9:24
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Schultz10:05
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson13:33
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Hannan – Erskine14:34
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).