Wed, Mar 9, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 03 | 214 | 09 | 226 |
| DET | 111 | 010 | 08 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57DETDarren HelmAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Kris Draper · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 7:50LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Penner, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–1
- P2 14:43LAKAlexei PonikarovskyPPGWGAssists: Alec Martinez · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:42LAKJack Johnson: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:33LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:16DETJiri Hudler: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:28DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:02DETBrad Stuart: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Stoll
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Penner – Kopitar13:19
xG 1.00–0.49 (67%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Smyth – Stoll – Brown8:33
xG 0.22–0.41 (34%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Clifford4:34
xG 0.05–0.46 (11%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Handzus – Ponikarovsky – Simmonds9:27
xG 0.12–0.70 (15%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty19:01
xG 0.87–0.41 (68%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Greene – Martinez7:28
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Greene2:00
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDraper – Hudler – Helm3:47
xG 0.61–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen10:20
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg3:11
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Zetterberg11:33
xG 0.72–0.83 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kindl8:33
xG 0.96–0.37 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson15:47
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart17:17
xG 0.70–1.05 (40%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).