Wed, Mar 9, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 111 | 25 | 11 | 426 |
| CBJ | 011 | 36 | 05 | 00 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:43CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Derick Brassard, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 4:17CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Grant Clitsome, Antoine Vermette · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 8:07CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Jared Boll, Ethan Moreau · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 13:02STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 2:32STLIan ColeAssists: Adam Cracknell · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 6:23STLChris StewartAssists: David Backes, Ian Cole · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 0:54STLChris StewartGWGAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:24CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:55STLIan Cole: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 5:32STLNikita Nikitin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:57CBJMarc Methot: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:56STLBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:49STLPatrik Berglund: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Oshie – Hensick4:39
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 8–1goals 1–1
- Porter – Stewart – Berglund9:01
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – D'Agostini10:59
xG 0.14–0.44 (24%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Nikitin7:22
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jackman – Nikitin4:24
xG 0.03–0.01 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo3:43
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Umberger – Calvert9:46
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Moreau – MacKenzie – Boll4:16
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Pahlsson – Upshall – Dorsett11:41
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek10:57
xG 0.43–0.57 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRivet – Tyutin13:56
xG 1.02–0.13 (88%)attempts 19–6goals 1–2
- Hejda – Methot17:43
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Russell13:19
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).