Wed, Mar 9, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Rangers 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 011 | 113 | 232 |
| ANA | 311 | 013 | 29 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:30NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Ryan Callahan, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 7:34ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan, Lubomir Visnovsky · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 9:19ANALubomir VisnovskyAssists: Toni Lydman, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 19:19ANALubomir VisnovskyGWGAssists: Teemu Selanne, Saku Koivu · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 2:19ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 5:31NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Vinny Prospal, Derek Stepan · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 14:36ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:23NYRDan Girardi: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:22ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:28NYRMarc Staal: Holding2 min
- P2 5:58ANABrad Winchester: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:12NYRArtem Anisimov: Elbowing2 min
- P3 3:35ANATeemu Selanne: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Prust5:31
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello10:10
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Dubinsky – Callahan5:41
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Prospal – Gaborik – Anisimov2:55
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – McDonagh13:24
xG 0.77–0.51 (60%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- McCabe – Sauer2:34
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi18:18
xG 1.00–0.96 (51%)attempts 20–20goals 1–4
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan15:40
xG 1.12–0.94 (54%)attempts 23–14goals 3–0
- Marchant – Winchester – Sexton9:57
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – McMillan9:27
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky15:28
xG 1.13–1.02 (53%)attempts 23–16goals 4–0
- Lilja – Fowler10:58
xG 0.38–0.36 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Sbisa13:17
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).