Thu, Mar 10, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 4, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 222 | 18 | 14 | 445 |
| BOS | 115 | 17 | 17 | 00 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54BOSNathan HortonAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 11:26BOSMark RecchiAssists: Michael Ryder, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 11:53BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Steve Montador, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 18:52BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Tyler Myers · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 2:18BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Zdeno Chara, Shawn Thornton · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 5:05BUFTim ConnollyPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–3
- OT 3:44BUFBrad BoyesGWGAssists: Nathan Gerbe · Tip-in, 0.28 xG4–3
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:54BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:54BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:31BOSShawn Thornton: Interference2 min
- P1 6:36BUFTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:43BUFMike Grier: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:43BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:54BOSZdeno Chara: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:13BOSDennis Seidenberg: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:17BUFThomas Vanek: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:11BOSJohnny Boychuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:08BOSTomas Kaberle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:11BUFPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:11BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:51BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:51BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:51BUFChris Butler: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:25BOSMark Recchi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:42BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCormick won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – McCormick – Vanek4:33
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Gaustad2:21
xG 0.12–0.01 (93%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Boyes – Stafford – Ennis8:09
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick2:59
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Morrisonn10:42
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Butler – Myers13:49
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Montador – Sekera14:23
xG 0.58–0.68 (46%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Ryder – Kelly8:59
xG 0.76–0.38 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:48
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille4:35
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Peverley – Marchand10:34
xG 0.29–0.58 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – McQuaid7:20
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid4:14
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Chara – Seidenberg2:11
xG 0.02–0.01 (72%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).