Thu, Mar 10, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Montréal Canadiens 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 112 | 06 | 010 | 128 |
| STL | 113 | 18 | 26 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:30MTLJeff HalpernAssists: Alexandre Picard, Paul Mara · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 18:59STLDavid BackesAssists: Andy McDonald · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 1:06STLAndy McDonaldGWGAssists: Matt D'Agostini · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 18:31STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Andy McDonald · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 19:37STLT.J. OshieENAssists: Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:57STLB.J. Crombeen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 6:06MTLMichael Cammalleri: Interference2 min
- P2 3:19MTLPaul Mara: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:19STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:35STLAlex Pietrangelo: Holding2 min
- P2 12:53MTLBenoit Pouliot: Holding2 min
- P2 15:46MTLBrian Gionta: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:33MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:33STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:30STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Oshie won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Desharnais – White3:30
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller8:42
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Kostitsyn4:49
xG 0.13–0.17 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Halpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec12:42
xG 0.39–0.47 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMara – Picard11:00
xG 0.60–0.41 (60%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Gill – Subban14:17
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski15:26
xG 0.33–1.01 (25%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHensick – Stewart – Berglund7:50
xG 0.58–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – D'Agostini13:03
xG 0.84–0.48 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 3–0
- Crombeen – Porter – Oshie11:16
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Janssen – Cracknell – Reaves2:52
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo15:22
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Cole – Shattenkirk12:45
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Polak14:53
xG 0.50–0.78 (39%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).