Thu, Mar 10, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 0, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 019 | 013 | 039 |
| PHX | 08 | 115 | 29 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:51PHXBrett MacLeanGWGAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 4:49PHXEric BelangerAssists: Derek Morris, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 18:04PHXShane DoanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:56CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:10CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:44PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:13PHXMichal Rozsival: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:52PHXDavid Schlemko: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jackman – Backlund6:06
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Bourque10:14
xG 0.66–0.79 (46%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Moss8:33
xG 0.22–0.44 (34%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Modin – Hagman – Stajan5:03
xG 0.10–0.56 (16%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Sarich2:11
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester13:37
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano2:41
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Belanger – Korpikoski11:21
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Ebbett – Boedker6:13
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bissonnette – Stempniak – Ebbett3:20
xG 0.02–0.02 (44%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Vrbata – Fiddler10:38
xG 0.56–0.65 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Schlemko13:10
xG 1.01–0.23 (81%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle16:48
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson7:22
xG 0.41–0.44 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).