Thu, Mar 10, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Vancouver Canucks 5, San Jose Sharks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 212 | 19 | 17 | 00 | 1 | 528 |
| SJS | 06 | 219 | 214 | 09 | 0 | 448 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:25VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:26VANSami SaloPPAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Manny Malhotra · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 0:57SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 2:04SJSRyane CloweAssists: Logan Couture, Ian White · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 5:38VANMason RaymondAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–2
- P3 17:47SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Ian White · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 18:11VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:39SJSRyane ClowePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Tip-in, 0.31 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
- 2. VAN Mason Raymond stopped
- 3. SJS Kyle Wellwood stopped
- 4. VAN Alexandre Burrows scored
- 5. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
Penalties (19)
- P1 1:00VANChristian Ehrhoff: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:33SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:11SJSDany Heatley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:26SJSBen Eager: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:33VANRaffi Torres: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:47SJSDevin Setoguchi: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:47VANKeith Ballard: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:25VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:25SJSNiclas Wallin: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:29VANChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:57SJSNiclas Wallin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:32VANHenrik Sedin: Holding2 min
- P3 8:20SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:01VANAaron Rome: Interference2 min
- P3 17:58SJSDouglas Murray: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:25VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- OT 0:49VANRyan Kesler: High sticking2 min
- OT 5:00VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- OT 5:00SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Kesler – Raymond5:16
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 11–2goals 1–1
- Higgins – Lapierre – Glass4:38
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen8:13
xG 0.27–0.51 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows8:14
xG 0.26–0.76 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Rome6:03
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Rome – Tanev2:00
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ballard – Tanev7:26
xG 0.38–0.50 (43%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Setoguchi10:21
xG 0.90–0.14 (87%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Mayers – Eager – Desjardins3:41
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Heatley – Clowe – Couture8:53
xG 0.82–0.82 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
- Wellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell8:04
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 2–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Demers10:29
xG 0.90–0.17 (84%)attempts 14–3goals 2–0
- Murray – Braun11:49
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Wallin – White11:09
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).