Fri, Mar 11, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Los Angeles Kings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 210 | 19 | 13 | 422 |
| CBJ | 115 | 05 | 114 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Justin Williams · Deflected, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 11:48CBJScottie UpshallAssists: Derek Dorsett · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 15:12LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Drew Doughty, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 11:13LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Matt Greene · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 11:30CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Rick Nash, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 18:26LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Dustin Penner, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:24CBJDerek Dorsett: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:54CBJEthan Moreau: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:43CBJEthan Moreau: Kneeing2 min
- P2 9:06LAKAnze Kopitar: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:34CBJAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:53CBJMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:14LAKJustin Williams: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:14CBJRick Nash: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:48LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:11LAKKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:11CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:26LAKJarret Stoll: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Handzus
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Ponikarovsky – Simmonds8:32
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Williams – Penner – Kopitar9:15
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Lewis – Westgarth – Clifford2:46
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Stoll – Brown9:10
xG 0.07–0.37 (16%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty14:46
xG 0.65–0.27 (70%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Scuderi – Greene4:49
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Greene – Martinez5:17
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMoreau – MacKenzie – Boll5:53
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Calvert8:10
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Upshall – Dorsett6:17
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek11:16
xG 0.44–0.84 (35%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Lepisto11:58
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hejda – Methot9:45
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Clitsome – Russell14:11
xG 0.41–0.74 (35%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).