Fri, Mar 11, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
New Jersey Devils 3, Atlanta Thrashers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 16 | 112 | 11 | 330 |
| ATL | 05 | 19 | 18 | 04 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:14ATLBlake WheelerAssists: Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 12:27NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Brian Rolston · Snap, 0.44 xG1–1
- P3 4:52ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Deflected, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 7:51NJDIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Nick Palmieri, Mark Fayne · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 4:18NJDTravis ZajacPPGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:40NJDBrian Rolston: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:43ATLDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:49NJDAndy Greene: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:43ATLToby Enstrom: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:52ATLChris Thorburn: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:23ATLRob Schremp: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:37NJDDavid Clarkson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:24ATLToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 1:34NJDMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:54ATLEvander Kane: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZharkov – Tedenby – Josefson7:31
xG 0.63–0.04 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus10:18
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Steckel – Clarkson – Pelley8:07
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri14:03
xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Volchenkov10:10
xG 0.88–0.48 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne14:24
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Greene – Salmela16:15
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Schremp – Burmistrov4:44
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Thorburn – Stapleton8:56
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little14:30
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Antropov – Kane2:07
xG 0.05–0.04 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Byfuglien11:18
xG 0.43–0.25 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian5:25
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian12:42
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).