Fri, Mar 11, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 0, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 04 | 07 | 03 | 014 |
| DAL | 19 | 313 | 09 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Nicklas Grossmann · Backhand, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 15:52DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 17:05DALTom WandellAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 17:23DALMike RibeiroUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:24DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:14MINAndrew Brunette: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:40DALJamie Langenbrunner: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:38MINMartin Havlat: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:00MINEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:23DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:16MINBrad Staubitz: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Madden – Miettinen10:35
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kobasew – Nystrom5:59
xG 0.08–0.29 (21%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak10:08
xG 0.02–0.36 (4%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Scandella13:28
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Zanon – Zidlicky14:27
xG 0.15–0.32 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Schultz – Spurgeon12:33
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Morrow – Ribeiro6:37
xG 0.36–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish2:59
xG 0.10–0.05 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ott – Benn – Vincour2:54
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Ott – Benn2:33
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski13:28
xG 0.46–0.06 (89%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Grossmann13:26
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Woywitka – Daley16:14
xG 0.37–1.09 (26%)attempts 17–19goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).