Fri, Mar 11, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 6, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 414 | 211 | 633 |
| COL | 112 | 19 | 05 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:16COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Ryan Wilson, Ryan O'Byrne · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 0:34ANASaku KoivuAssists: Teemu Selanne, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 3:26ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
- P2 4:52COLDavid JonesAssists: Paul Stastny, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 5:20ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 10:13ANADan SextonAssists: Brandon McMillan · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–2
- P3 10:00ANABobby RyanAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 12:13ANABrad WinchesterAssists: Saku Koivu, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:11ANAJarkko Ruutu: Holding2 min
- P1 9:07ANABrandon McMillan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:15COLDavid Jones: Holding2 min
- P1 13:37COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:37ANABrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:50COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:52ANASaku Koivu: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:46COLJay McClement: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16ANABrad Winchester: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:16COLCody McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:26ANABobby Ryan: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:26COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:34ANABrad Winchester: Interference2 min
- P3 10:09COLJay McClement: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan10:44
xG 0.50–0.27 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Selanne – Koivu – McMillan9:14
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Marchant – Winchester – Sexton8:09
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Parros – Chipchura5:43
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky10:45
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Lilja – Fowler13:38
xG 0.36–0.27 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa14:53
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Winnik – McLeod – O'Reilly4:26
xG 0.07–0.13 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Yip – Duchene3:13
xG 0.01–0.20 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Jones – Porter – Stastny6:11
xG 0.02–0.30 (6%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- O'Byrne – Wilson3:09
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Holos9:52
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Johnson10:43
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).