Sat, Mar 12, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 29 | 02 | 320 |
| PIT | 05 | 011 | 010 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:46MTLTomas PlekanecGWGAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 0:24MTLTravis MoenAssists: Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 6:51MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Jeff Halpern · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P2 3:26MTLDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:01PITMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:47PITMax Talbot: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:47MTLPaul Mara: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:56PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:56PITMike Rupp: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:56MTLYannick Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:02MTLP.K. Subban: Elbowing2 min
- P3 18:07MTLPaul Mara: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jeffrey won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec11:27
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Pouliot – Pyatt – Desharnais6:43
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – White – Eller10:31
xG 0.21–0.38 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen11:55
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski17:56
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 17–21goals 3–0
- Mara – Weber10:54
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Gill – Subban16:16
xG 0.12–0.49 (19%)attempts 4–19goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Neal – Letestu12:37
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Rupp – Talbot4:25
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Talbot – Jeffrey3:42
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kennedy – Staal9:28
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Lovejoy13:18
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Letang15:40
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Martin – Michalek13:07
xG 0.33–0.63 (35%)attempts 17–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).