Sat, Mar 12, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 03 | 26 | 06 | 00 | 215 |
| NJD | 18 | 09 | 115 | 13 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57NJDJacob JosefsonAssists: David Clarkson, Anton Volchenkov · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:13NYIBlake ComeauSHAssists: Jack Hillen · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:46NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Andrew MacDonald, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 5:42NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Mattias Tedenby, Jacob Josefson · Snap, 0.54 xG2–2
- OT 3:09NJDAnssi SalmelaGWGAssists: Mattias Tedenby, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:28NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:28NJDAdam Mair: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:08NYITravis Hamonic: Holding2 min
- P2 11:19NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:38NYIJack Hillen: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:47NYIZenon Konopka: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:33NYIFrans Nielsen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:33NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner10:58
xG 0.23–0.02 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Konopka – Haley – DiBenedetto5:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Bailey – Martin10:03
xG 0.04–0.24 (13%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares15:16
xG 0.16–0.62 (20%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJurcina – Gervais9:39
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:08
xG 0.22–0.23 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Martinek – Hillen16:53
xG 0.20–0.40 (34%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Elias – Zubrus10:49
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Clarkson – Tedenby – Josefson8:56
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Clarkson – Josefson2:04
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri11:25
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Salmela15:51
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Fayne17:45
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- White – Volchenkov13:24
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).