Sat, Mar 12, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 111 | 16 | 328 |
| CAR | 010 | 010 | 211 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:44CBJSamuel PahlssonSHAssists: Derek Dorsett, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 0:42CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Matt Calvert, Jan Hejda · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 9:16CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Erik Cole, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 18:59CBJDerek MacKenzieENGWGAssists: Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–1
- P3 19:25CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Eric Staal, Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:40CBJJared Boll: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:18CBJJan Hejda: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:29CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:08CARJeff Skinner: Interference2 min
- P1 13:17CARJussi Jokinen: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:04CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 13:05CBJSteve Mason: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:52CBJChris Clark: Interference2 min
- P2 15:16CBJDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:16CBJDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:02CARErik Cole: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:09CARBryan Allen: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:25CBJDerick Brassard: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:30CARCory Stillman: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:52CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Upshall – Calvert3:43
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett3:30
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek6:35
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Boll6:01
xG 0.07–0.35 (16%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRivet – Russell6:45
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Lepisto10:29
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Hejda – Clitsome9:01
xG 0.33–0.58 (36%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCole – Jokinen – Skinner4:26
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- LaRose – Tlusty – Sutter4:29
xG 0.37–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman3:30
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Stillman – Ruutu – Staal9:10
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Harrison8:05
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Corvo – Pitkanen10:48
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Allen – Joslin8:33
xG 0.05–0.56 (9%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).