Sat, Mar 12, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 5, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 213 | 16 | 28 | 527 |
| STL | 112 | 07 | 210 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:17STLAdam CracknellAssists: Ryan Reaves, Cam Janssen · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:51DETRuslan SaleiAssists: Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 12:07DETDarren HelmAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Kris Draper · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 18:35DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 3:48STLDavid BackesAssists: Andy McDonald, Matt D'Agostini · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 6:19STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Deflected, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 13:13DETPavel DatsyukGWGAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 14:33DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:22STLMatt D'Agostini: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:36DETBrad Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:50DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min
- P2 10:50DETHenrik Zetterberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:14DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:26STLRyan Reaves: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDraper – Abdelkader – Helm7:42
xG 0.62–0.17 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Zetterberg13:05
xG 0.91–0.64 (59%)attempts 15–14goals 1–2
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Franzen12:25
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Modano – Filppula – Hudler8:11
xG 0.04–0.29 (13%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kronwall15:15
xG 1.02–0.56 (64%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Lidstrom – Ericsson11:01
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Salei – Kindl9:27
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 5–10goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHensick – Stewart – Berglund6:29
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Cracknell – Stewart – Berglund3:39
xG 0.22–0.25 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Janssen – Cracknell – Reaves2:18
xG 0.10–0.31 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- Crombeen – Porter – Oshie10:49
xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo11:11
xG 0.47–0.41 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Shattenkirk2:35
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole8:16
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).