Sat, Mar 12, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 014 | 216 | 08 | 238 |
| NSH | 212 | 18 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16NSHShea WeberAssists: Joel Ward, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–1
- P1 11:36NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Kevin Klein, Blake Geoffrion · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 4:15COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: David Van Der Gulik, David Jones · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 13:31NSHJoel WardGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 19:30COLDaniel WinnikAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Byrne · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:58NSHMartin EratENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:12COLBrandon Yip: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:35NSHMike Fisher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:23COLKevin Porter: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:08NSHRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P1 16:12COLRyan O'Reilly: Holding2 min
- P2 9:37NSHJonathon Blum: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:54NSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:42NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:42COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:37COLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:42NSHShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:42COLDaniel Winnik: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:35COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestVan Der Gulik – Jones – O'Reilly2:36
xG 0.99–0.02 (98%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Winnik – Olver – Duchene6:19
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Olver – O'Reilly2:34
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Yip – McLeod6:38
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Wilson9:17
xG 1.38–0.72 (66%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Holos7:14
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Holos3:15
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Ward9:21
xG 1.35–1.24 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Wilson4:22
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Smithson – Hornqvist – Spaling8:36
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Geoffrion – Halischuk5:30
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber16:43
xG 1.42–0.46 (76%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Klein – O'Brien3:00
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Franson7:05
xG 0.07–0.39 (14%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).