Sat, Mar 12, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 4, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 313 | 07 | 432 |
| CGY | 27 | 110 | 06 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14CGYMikael BacklundUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 3:32CGYMatt StajanAssists: Tom Kostopoulos, Cory Sarich · Backhand, 0.31 xG0–2
- P1 8:48VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 9:46VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Christian Ehrhoff · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 10:52CGYDavid MossAssists: Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–3
- P2 15:41VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Christian Ehrhoff · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 19:44VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:16CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:01VANDan Hamhuis: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:07CGYRene Bourque: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:51VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Tambellini – Lapierre7:11
xG 0.48–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Tambellini – Lapierre3:04
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:10
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Raymond4:30
xG 0.08–0.04 (64%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Tanev14:25
xG 0.54–0.11 (84%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Salo – Rome16:16
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ehrhoff17:56
xG 0.45–0.75 (38%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Moss12:41
xG 0.98–0.20 (83%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan9:50
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Bourque11:13
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Hagman – Backlund – Bouma6:44
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano17:03
xG 1.68–0.50 (77%)attempts 21–18goals 3–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester14:12
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Sarich – Regehr2:15
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).