Sat, Mar 12, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
New York Rangers 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 16 | 03 | 02 | 2 | 322 |
| SJS | 19 | 19 | 012 | 03 | 1 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:30SJSRyane ClowePPAssists: Logan Couture, Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 16:57NYRErik ChristensenAssists: Vinny Prospal, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 1:16NYRMichael SauerAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 16:26SJSBen EagerAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Dan Boyle · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
- 2. NYR Erik Christensen stopped
- 3. SJS Dan Boyle scored
- 4. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 5. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
- 6. NYR Wojtek Wolski scored
- 7. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 8. NYR Artem Anisimov stopped
- 9. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 10. NYR Ryan Callahan stopped
- 11. SJS Dany Heatley stopped
- 12. NYR Brandon Dubinsky scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:07SJSBen Eager: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:07NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 12:19NYRMatt Gilroy: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:47SJSLogan Couture: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:59NYRRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:52SJSBen Eager: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:52NYRBrandon Prust: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:27NYRRyan Callahan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Gaborik – Christensen10:30
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust10:28
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello6:09
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov12:51
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sauer – McDonagh16:14
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 15–22goals 2–0
- McCabe – Gilroy9:07
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi20:37
xG 0.52–0.82 (39%)attempts 18–27goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestEager – Pavelski – Mitchell4:39
xG 0.53–0.01 (97%)attempts 19–1goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi13:23
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell4:10
xG 0.04–0.02 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Mayers – Wellwood – Eager4:19
xG 0.08–0.10 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray13:55
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Demers13:32
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun3:00
xG 0.01–0.01 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).