Sun, Mar 13, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Edmonton Oilers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 02 | 011 | 116 | 129 |
| PIT | 113 | 210 | 210 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:25PITChris KunitzAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 6:27PITMax TalbotGWGAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 18:56PITJordan StaalAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Matt Cooke · Tip-in, 0.35 xG0–3
- P3 1:11EDMRyan JonesAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Alexandre Giroux · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–3
- P3 7:52PITZbynek MichalekAssists: Craig Adams, Max Talbot · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 16:11PITChris KunitzPPAssists: James Neal, Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:14EDMLinus Omark: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:31EDMRyan Jones: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:37PITAlex Kovalev: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:51PITPaul Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:09PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:43EDMJim Vandermeer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:44EDMJason Strudwick: Interference2 min
- P3 4:48EDMJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:14PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:56EDMGilbert Brule: Charging2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Jones – Cogliano4:50
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Reddox – Brule – Omark4:53
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Eberle – Paajarvi7:43
xG 0.04–0.25 (13%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Petry12:51
xG 0.83–0.72 (54%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Strudwick – Foster9:37
xG 0.20–0.43 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Smid15:18
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Conner – Jeffrey4:25
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kennedy – Staal9:28
xG 0.34–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Rupp – Talbot2:45
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Adams – Dupuis – Talbot4:48
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang4:49
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Michalek – Lovejoy7:02
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Letang – Lovejoy4:54
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).