Sun, Mar 13, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Phoenix Coyotes 5, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 211 | 210 | 110 | 531 |
| ANA | 113 | 115 | 010 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 5:44PHXTaylor PyattUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 17:33PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 15:46ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Lubomir Visnovsky · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 16:47PHXLauri KorpikoskiGWGAssists: Shane Doan, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 19:17PHXDavid SchlemkoAssists: Ray Whitney, Radim Vrbata · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 19:18PHXShane DoanENAssists: Adrian Aucoin · Slap, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:50ANACorey Perry: Holding2 min
- P1 15:05PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min
- P1 19:08PHXVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:40PHXKyle Turris: Elbowing2 min
- P2 14:47PHXRadim Vrbata: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 17:14ANATodd Marchant: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:15PHXVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:15ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:19PHXRadim Vrbata: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak12:38
xG 0.50–0.11 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Doan – Belanger – Boedker4:43
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Korpikoski6:04
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Doan – Belanger – Korpikoski6:21
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Yandle2:14
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Schlemko2:40
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Yandle2:29
xG 0.03–0.09 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan14:12
xG 0.82–0.29 (74%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Parros – McMillan4:54
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Marchant – Winchester – Sexton8:15
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Selanne – Koivu – McMillan3:06
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Fowler3:17
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky14:33
xG 0.77–0.70 (52%)attempts 12–15goals 1–2
- Beauchemin – Sbisa13:26
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).